As meteorological spring kicks off on Saturday, the South is preparing for a stretch of severe weather lasting multiple days. The first round of storms is expected to hit Oklahoma and Texas on Sunday, bringing strong winds and large hail. However, a more significant threat could develop by Tuesday as a more active weather pattern sets in, just in time for the start of March.
Storms Begin Sunday in Texas and Oklahoma
A storm system moving out of the Rockies late Saturday into Sunday will bring the first wave of severe weather. This system will create a dryline, which is a boundary between dry and humid air masses. This dryline will move through Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday, creating conditions for scattered severe thunderstorms.
Although meteorologists are still analyzing how strong the storms will be, the current forecast suggests that the overall threat level is low. The biggest concerns are strong winds and large hail, while the risk of tornadoes remains very small.
One reason the tornado threat is low is the lack of sufficient storm energy, known as CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). Although wind shear, which helps storms grow stronger, is present in the region, the limited instability will likely keep the storms from becoming too intense.
Even though this first system may not be extreme, it could signal a more active weather pattern in the coming days.
Stronger Storms Expected by Tuesday
Another storm system is expected to arrive on Monday or Tuesday, increasing the chance of severe weather. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather warning for parts of East Texas and the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
Although details are still unclear, residents in the South should stay alert during the first week of March. Forecasters will continue monitoring conditions to determine if the storms will become more dangerous.
March Marks the Start of Severe Weather Season
As winter transitions into spring, the jet stream moves northward, bringing unstable weather patterns that can lead to severe storms and tornadoes. Historically, March sees an average of 92 tornadoes in the U.S., more than double the 44 tornadoes typically recorded in February.
Overall, the country experiences about 1,333 tornadoes each year, with more than half occurring between April and June. This means the severe weather season is just beginning, and residents should stay prepared for upcoming storms.
