Republicans are once again trying to stop undocumented immigrants from being counted in the U.S. Census numbers that determine congressional seats and Electoral College votes. However, a new study shows that including undocumented residents in past censuses has had very little effect on election outcomes.
The study, conducted by researchers from the University of Minnesota and the Center for Migration Studies of New York, analyzed census data from 1980 to 2020. It found that if undocumented immigrants had been excluded, only up to two seats in the House of Representatives and three Electoral College votes would have shifted. This minor change would not have affected which political party controlled the House or the results of presidential elections.
Why Does This Matter?
According to the 14th Amendment, congressional seats and Electoral College votes are based on the total population of each state, not just citizens. This means that the U.S. Census Bureau has always counted all residents, regardless of their legal status.
Some Republicans believe only U.S. citizens should be counted for this purpose. A Republican redistricting expert has previously suggested that using only the citizen population when drawing congressional districts could benefit Republicans and non-Hispanic white voters.
Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards from North Carolina supports this change, arguing that it would ensure “fair and equal representation” for Americans. In line with this, attorneys general from Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, and West Virginia recently filed a lawsuit to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census count. Meanwhile, voters in California and Texas, with support from the Democratic-affiliated National Redistricting Foundation, are fighting against this lawsuit, saying it would unfairly reduce their states’ representation.
Historical Background
During his presidency, Donald Trump attempted to exclude undocumented immigrants from the 2020 Census apportionment numbers. He also ordered the collection of citizenship data but was blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court when he tried to add a citizenship question to the census form. The court ruled that the administration’s reasoning for adding the question seemed “contrived.”
Trump’s policies were later canceled by President Joe Biden in 2021 before the 2020 census data was finalized. However, after returning to the White House last month, Trump reversed Biden’s order.
What the Research Shows
Since the number of House seats is fixed at 435, changing the way seats are divided among states would mean some states lose representation while others gain. The study found that excluding undocumented immigrants would have slightly shifted seats over the years:
- 1980 Census: California and New York would have lost a seat each, while Indiana and Georgia would have gained one each.
- 1990 Census: California would have lost two seats, Texas one, while Kentucky, Massachusetts, and Montana would have gained one each.
- 2000 Census: California would have lost three seats, Texas one, while Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, and Montana would have gained one each.
- 2010 Census: California would have lost three seats, Texas and Florida one each, while Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and North Carolina would have gained one each.
- 2020 Census: California and Texas each would have lost one seat, while Ohio and New York would have gained one each.
The study concludes that the impact of including undocumented immigrants in the census is minor, and their exclusion would not have changed political control in Congress or the outcome of presidential elections.
